Will all the Computex 2024 hype surrounding AI PCs and CoPilot+ PCs spark growth in the PC market? Not this year, at least, according to the latest projections from research firm IDC. Despite more positive economic tailwinds and the launch of AI PCs, the firm expects the overall market to remain flat, with shipments reaching approximately 260.2 million units this year.
IDC’s global outlook is tempered by slowness in the China market, which the firm does not expect to recover until the second half of 2025. While IDC predicts 2.6% growth across all other markets this year, it projects that consumer demand will remain anemic worldwide. Elevated interest rates and competition from other devices like smartphones are expected to dampen growth in this segment. The only bright spot is the education sector, which will see 29.6 million PCs shipped as part of a refresh cycle.
IDC is cautious about the long-term impact of AI PCs on shipment volumes, predicting instead that this new category will contribute to an increase in average selling prices (ASPs).
While acknowledging that AI PCs “will bring with them a momentous shift in computing by offering content generation and increased productivity over the next few years,” Jitesh Ubrani, a research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, noted that “consumer adoption will likely take longer as educating users on the benefits of on-device AI vs cloud-based solutions won’t be a straightforward task.”
Linn Huang, research vice president, Devices and Displays at IDC echoed this message: “Eventually, AI will be ubiquitous on PCs. In the meantime, we see AI PCs (defined here as those with NPUs) ramping up from roughly one in five this year, to nearly two out of every three shipped in 2028.”
For all the talk of an AI PC revolution at Computex, IDC sees it as more of an evolution. That’s something for industry executives to think about on their long flights back home.
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